Monday, August 27, 2007

Fantasy football: the aftermath

Last time on “A Cup of Joe”:
Joe enters his third year of “Trouble,” a 12-team fantasy football league. This year, the commissioner decides to allow keepers as long as they were drafted past the eighth round last year.

Joe decides to keep undrafted WR Reggie Brown (PHI), RB Brandon Jacobs (NYG) and QB Vince Young (TEN), thus losing his 12th to 14th picks. And he has the No. 2 pick in the draft.

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Round 1, 2nd pick: RB Steven Jackson (STL) – (No. 2 overall according to fanball.com's 2006 stats, No. 2 RB)
2006: 1,528 rushing yds, 13 rushing TDs, 806 receiving yds, 3 TDs, 28.36 points per game (3rd overall, 2nd RB)

This was a no-brain pick on my part. If I couldn't get Tomlinson, Jackson was my only other option. With our league's slightly higher points per reception, Jackson should get ridiculous points this year. He also mentioned that he had a lofty goal: 2,500 yards of total offense.

Round 2, 23rd pick: QB Carson Palmer (CIN) – (No. 10, No. 5 QB)
2006: 4,036 yards passing, 28 TDs, 22.84 ppg (12th, 6th QB)

I was going to take a super top-tier wide receiver with my second pick, but with my top three choices – Reggie Wayne, Steve Smith and Chad Johnson – gone from the board, I went with my second QB choice, behind Peyton. Palmer has Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh as targets and getting 4,000-plus yards and 30-plus TDs should be a given this season. Plus QB points are slightly increased this year.

Round 3, 26th pick: WR Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) – (No. 103, No. 25 WR)
2006: 941 receiving yds, 6 TDs, 14.53 ppg

Fitz suffered through injuries last year, but he's big (6-4/220) and has immense talent. Add QB Matt Leinart, who will pass the ball around enough to keep him, RB Edgerrin James and WR Anquan Boldin happy. I'm expecting a solid 1,000-plus yards, 10-plus TDs for him this year.

Round 4, 47th pick: RB Adrian Peterson (MIN)
2006: N/A

I know he's sharing time with Chester Taylor for Minnesota, but he will make some huge runs. It was a fair gamble to take him here, but I think he's going to take over the full-time starting slot fairly early into the season. He should end up with 1,000-plus yards on the ground and six TDs.

Round 5, 50th pick: TE Vernon Davis (SF) – (No. 286, No. 26 TE)
2006: 265 receiving yds, 3 TDs, 5.99 ppg

At the end of the fourth round, tight ends were going fast. The top TEs – Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzalez and Alge Crumpler – were gone. Davis showed flashes of brilliance before he broke his leg last year. He's big (6-3, 253) and fast (4.40 40). In retrospect, I probably chose him higher than I should have, but he was the top TE on my list behind Gates.

Round 6, 71st pick: WR Darrell Jackson (SF) – (No. 73, No. 13 WR)
2006: 956 receiving yds, 10 TDs, 17.13 ppg (4th WR)

I was not expecting Jackson to be available this late into the draft. Last year he averaged the fourth highest ppg for a WR with Seattle. If Alex Smith can live up to his potential and get him the ball, Jackson should be in for another quality season. I'm expect 1,000-plus yards and 8 TDs.

Round 7, 74th pick: Minnesota Vikings defense – (No. 25, No. 4 DEF)
2006: 17.76 ppg (4th DEF)

With Chicago gone in the third round, and San Diego, Pittsburgh, Miami, Baltimore and Denver gone soon after, I went for the best of the rest. Minnesota's no slouch, though: Best rushing defense last year at 61.6 yards per game and they forced 36 turnovers.

Round 8, 95th pick: WR Greg Jennings (GB) – (No. 175, No. 50 WR)
2006: 632 receiving yds, 3 TDs, 8.86 ppg

With three receivers on my team already, I went for a solid backup. Jennings will be the No. 2 receiver in Green Bay behind Donald Driver. With a year under his belt, he should get higher numbers. Many fantasy sites predict that he could approach 1,000 yards receiving this year.

Round 9, 98th pick: TE Randy McMichael (StL) – (No. 170, No. 11 TE)
2006: 640 receiving yds, 3 TDs, 7.89 ppg

A backup tight end, this early? At this point, I felt my team was fairly solid. Plus I needed someone who could slip into the TE role if Davis doesn't live up to my expectations. In St. Louis, McMichael should get a lot more looks than he did in Miami.

Round 10, 119th pick: RB Kevin Jones (DET) – (No. 66, No. 21 RB)
2006: 689 rushing yds, 6 TDs, 520 receiving yds, 2 TDs, 19.16 ppg

Even with the addition of Tatum Bell, Jones should get a fair share of time running the ball. Plus with Detroit's fondness of throwing the ball, Jones could get quite a few catches.

Round 11, 122nd pick: WR Amani Toomer (NYG) – (No. 250, No. 77 WR)
2006: 360 receiving yds, 3 TDs, 9.76 ppg

I wasn't sold on this pick, but my other options for a fifth receiver weren't so good. Toomer went down with a season-ending injury last year, but had a couple of big games in between. I had him a couple years ago. It's a love-hate relationship with him.

Round 12, 143rd pick: [KEEPER] WR Reggie Brown (PHI) – (No. 100, No. 24 WR)
2006: 836 receiving yds, 8 TDs, 11.90 ppg

With Donte' Stallworth out of the picture, Brown becomes the Eagles' No. 1 option. And with McNabb's affinity to throwing the ball, Brown should get plenty of looks. I'm expecting him to have a breakout season with 1,100-plus yds and 10-plus TDs.

Round 13, 146th pick: [KEEPER] RB Brandon Jacobs (NYG) – (No. 157, No. 40 RB)
2006: 423 rushing yds, 9 TDs, 149 receiving yds, 9.10 ppg

Tiki Barber's retirement meant that Jacobs would move into the role as No. 1 RB. Jacobs is likely to start despite the team's addition of Reuben Droughns. Jacobs should have 1,000-plus yards and 10-plus TDs in his new role.

Round 14, 167th pick: [KEEPER] QB Vince Young (TEN) – (No. 25, No. 13 QB)
2006: 2,199 passing yds, 12 TDs, 553 rushing yds, 7 TDs, 18.99 ppg

As long as the Madden curse doesn't get him – knock on wood – Young should post up solid numbers this season. If he can get me 2,500 passing yds and 20 TDs, I'll be happy. It's his rushing yards I'm salivating over.

Round 15, 170th pick: QB Brady Quinn (CLE)
2006: N/A

Even if he's not a starter this year, he's bound to be one next year. I took this pick in order to keep him for next year. Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow should provide plenty of throwing opportunities.

Round 16, 191st pick: K Martin Grammatica (DAL)
2006: Who cares?

This wasn't my choice. I wasn't going to choose a kicker anyway.

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Best bargain: Darrell Jackson in the sixth round
I was not expecting him to be available that far down.

Worst pick-up: Randy McMichael in the ninth round
I should have picked up Green Bay RB Vernand Morency there. He was still available and I'm sure McMichael would have been there in the 10th.

Should've waited: Vernon Davis in the fifth round
This was a panic pick. I think he would've stayed on the board until the sixth round. I could have picked up a better defense here.

Should've grabbed when I could: Ten Ginn Jr. in the 15th round
No one would've picked up Quinn, but I thought no one was going to grab Ginn Jr. But with the pick before mine, he was selected.

Evaluation

QB: Palmer (2nd), Young (14th) and Quinn (15th): I learned from my mistake last year when I had Matt Hasselbach and Jake Plummer as my QBs. Palmer should be gold and Young should give me solid flex points this year.

RB: Jackson (1st), Peterson (4th), Jones (10th) and Jacobs (13th): Jackson will get me tons of points. Jacobs will be a solid No. 2 back and Peterson should emerge as an offensive rookie of the year candidate. Who knows, Jones could have a big season.

WR: Fitzgerald (3rd), Jackson (6th), Jennings (8th), Toomer (11th) and Brown (12th): Fitzgerald had 1,409 yds in 2005 and if he's healthy, he should approach that this year. Jackson is capable of 1,200-plus yards if he remains healthy. Brown is a solid No. 2 WR and has improved every season. Jennings will give me a good backup/flex option. Toomer could be good.

TE: Davis (5th) and McMichael (9th): This could be my weakest position or one of my strongest. It depends on how Davis performs. He has the potential to be a 1,000-plus, 10 TD TE. If not, McMichael will provide solid numbers.

DEF: Minnesota (7th): Defensive Coordinator Mike Tomlin left in the offseason, but many of the team's key players remain. I need to pick up a backup for their bye week, but I'll get there when it comes.

K: Grammatica (16th): I randomly chose him. I think I'm going to pick up Green Bay's Mason Crosby just because I need a Colorado connection on the team.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Good for people to know.